Nomos Publication Series »Computational and Quantitative Methods in Law«

Paola Janßen, Schließen mit Erfahrungssätzen. Untersuchung des Zusammenhangs zwischen statistischen und juristischen Methoden der Überzeugungsbildung [Reasoning with Experiential Propositions. Investigating the Relationship between Statistical and Legal Methods of Conviction Formation]
Nomos, 2021, 333 pages, paperback, ISBN 978-3-8487-8144-7

Volume 1 of the Nomos publication series »Computational and Quantitative Methods in Law | Computergestützte und quantitative Methoden im Recht«, edited by Prof. Dr. Miriam Buiten, Prof. Dr. Lars Hornuf, Prof. Dr. Martin Missong, Prof. Dr. Emanuel V. Towfigh, Prof. Dr. Stefan Voigt

Abstract | When dealing with empirical propositions in court, there is a risk of committing the probabilistic fallacy of »inverse fallacy«, the swapping of conditional probabilities. Such a fallacy can be serious in legal decision making. The thesis uses empirical methods to show that this fallacy can be observed in civil procedural court decisions in which prima facie evidence is used and can have a significant impact on decision making. The thesis was written at the Research Unit »Statistics in Court« of the Chair of Empirical Economic Research and Applied Statistics at the University of Bremen.

[Translated by DeepL]